Prospective study of loss of health-related quality adjusted life years in children and their families due to uncomplicated and hospitalised varicella.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Although usually benign, varicella can lead to serious complications and sometimes long-term sequelae. Vaccines are safe and effective but not yet included in immunisation programmes in many countries. We aimed to quantify the impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALY) in children with varicella and their families, key to assessing cost-utility in countries with low mortality due to this infection. METHODS: Children with varicella in the community and admitted to hospitals in Portugal were included over 18 months from January 2019. Children's and carers' HRQoL losses were assessed prospectively using standard multi-attribute utility instruments for measuring HRQoL (EQ-5D and CHU9D), from presentation to recovery, allowing the calculation of QALYs. RESULTS: Among 109 families with children with varicella recruited from attendees at a pediatric emergency service (community arm), the mean HRQoL loss/child was 2.0 days (95 % CI 1.9-2.2, n = 101) (mean 5.4 QALYs/1000 children (95 % CI 5.3-6.1) and 1.3 days/primary carer (95 % CI 1.2-1.6, n = 103) (mean 3.6 QALYs /1000 carers (95 % CI 3.4-4.4). Among 114 families with children admitted to hospital because of severe varicella or a complication (hospital arm), the mean HRQoL loss/child was 9.8 days (95 % CI 9.4-10.6, n = 114) (mean 26.8 QALYs /1000 children (95 % CI 25.8-29.0) and 8.5 days/primary carer (95 % CI 7.4-9.6, n = 114) (mean 23.4 QALYs/1000 carers (95 % CI 20.3-26.2). Mean QALY losses/1000 patients were particularly high for bone and joint infections [67.5 (95 % CI 43.9-97.6)]. Estimates for children's QALYs lost using the CHU9D tool were well correlated with those obtained using EQ-5D, but substantially lower. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of varicella on HRQoL is substantial. We report the first measurements of QALYs lost in hospitalised children and in the families of children both in the community and admitted to hospital, providing important information to guide vaccination policy recommendations.

Epidemiology of hospitalisations due to chickenpox and quality of life lost in community and hospital settings: protocol for a prospective cohort study across two countries.

INTRODUCTION: While still a ubiquitous disease of childhood, chickenpox has been effectively controlled in many countries through the use of vaccination. Previous health economic assessment of the use of these vaccines in the UK were based on limited quality of life data and only routinely collected epidemiological outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This two armed study will carry prospective surveillance of hospital admissions and recruit from community settings to measure the acute quality of life loss caused by paediatric chickenpox both in the UK and in Portugal. The quality of life effects on children and their primary and secondary caregivers will be assessed using the EuroQol EQ-5D with the Child Health Utility instrument (CHU-9) in addition for children. Results will be used to derive quality-adjusted life year loss estimates for cases of simple varicella and the secondary complications. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We have received National Health Service ethical approval (REC ref: 18/ES/0040) for the inpatient arm, university ethical approval (University of Bristol ref: 60721) for the community arm and 10 sites currently are recruiting in the UK and 14 in Portugal. Informed consent is obtained from the parent(s). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15017985.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in prevention of hospitalisations and severe disease in adults with SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant between June 2021 and July 2022: A prospective test negative case–control study

Summary Background Whilst other studies have reported the effectiveness of mRNA vaccination against hospitalisation, including emergency department or intensive care admission, few have assessed effectiveness against other more clinically robust indices of COVID-19 severity. Methods A prospective single-centre test-negative design case–control study of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 disease or other acute respiratory disease between 1 June 2021 and 20 July 2022. We assessed VE (vaccine effectiveness) against hospitalisation, length of stay [LOS] >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and supplementary oxygen FiO2 (fraction inspired oxygen) >28%, conducting regression analyses controlling for age, gender, index of multiple deprivation, Charlson comorbidity index, time, and community infection prevalence. Findings 935 controls and 546 cases were hospitalised during the Delta period, with 721 controls and 372 cases hospitalised during the Omicron study period. Two-dose BNT162b2 was associated with VE 82.5% [95% confidence interval 76.2%–87.2%] against hospitalisation following Delta infection, 63.3% [26.9–81.8%], 58.5% [24.8–77.3%], and 51.5% [16.7–72.1%] against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5, and requirement for FiO2 >28% respectively. Three-dose BNT162b2 protection against hospitalisation with Omicron infection was 30.9% [5.9–49.3%], with sensitivity analyses ranging from 28.8–72.6%. Protection against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and requirement for FiO2 >28% was 56.1% [20.6–76.5%], 58.8% [31.2–75.8%], and 41.5% [−0.4–66.3%], respectively. In the UK, BNT162b2 was prioritised for high-risk individuals and those aged >75 years. In the latter group we found a higher estimate of VE against hospitalisation of 47.2% [16.8–66.6%]. Interpretation BNT162b2 vaccination results in risk reductions for hospitalisation and multiple patient outcomes following Delta and Omicron COVID-19 infection, particularly in older adults. BNT162b2 remains effective against severe SARS-CoV-2 disease. Funding AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by 10.13039/100004319Pfizer.

Severity of Omicron (B.1.1.529) and Delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 infection among hospitalised adults: A prospective cohort study in Bristol, United Kingdom.

Background: There is an urgent public health need to evaluate disease severity in adults hospitalised with Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant infections. However, limited data exist assessing severity of disease in adults hospitalised with Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infections, and to what extent patient-factors, including vaccination, age, frailty and pre-existing disease, affect variant-dependent disease severity. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adults (≥18 years of age) hospitalised with acute lower respiratory tract disease at acute care hospitals in Bristol, UK conducted over 10-months. Delta or Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined by positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR and variant identification or inferred by dominant circulating variant. We constructed adjusted regression analyses to assess disease severity using three different measures: FiO2 >28% (fraction inspired oxygen), World Health Organization (WHO) outcome score >5 (assessing need for ventilatory support), and hospital length of stay (LOS) >3 days following admission for Omicron or Delta infection. Findings: Independent of other variables, including vaccination, Omicron variant infection in hospitalised adults was associated with lower severity than Delta. Risk reductions were 58%, 67%, and 16% for supplementary oxygen with >28% FiO2 [Relative Risk (RR) = 0.42 (95%CI: 0.34-0.52), P < 0.001], WHO outcome score >5 [RR = 0.33 (95%CI: 0.21-0.50), P < 0.001], and to have had a LOS > 3 days [RR = 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76-0.92), P < 0.001]. Younger age and vaccination with two or three doses were also independently associated with lower COVID-19 severity. Interpretation: We provide reassuring evidence that Omicron infection results in less serious adverse outcomes than Delta in hospitalised patients. Despite lower severity relative to Delta, Omicron infection still resulted in substantial patient and public health burden and an increased admission rate of older patients with Omicron which counteracts some of the benefit arising from less severe disease. Funding: AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in prevention of hospitalisations and severe disease in adults with SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant between June 2021 and July 2022: A prospective test negative case-control study.

Background: Whilst other studies have reported the effectiveness of mRNA vaccination against hospitalisation, including emergency department or intensive care admission, few have assessed effectiveness against other more clinically robust indices of COVID-19 severity. Methods: A prospective single-centre test-negative design case-control study of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 disease or other acute respiratory disease between 1 June 2021 and 20 July 2022. We assessed VE (vaccine effectiveness) against hospitalisation, length of stay [LOS] >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and supplementary oxygen FiO2 (fraction inspired oxygen) >28%, conducting regression analyses controlling for age, gender, index of multiple deprivation, Charlson comorbidity index, time, and community infection prevalence. Findings: 935 controls and 546 cases were hospitalised during the Delta period, with 721 controls and 372 cases hospitalised during the Omicron study period. Two-dose BNT162b2 was associated with VE 82.5% [95% confidence interval 76.2%-87.2%] against hospitalisation following Delta infection, 63.3% [26.9-81.8%], 58.5% [24.8-77.3%], and 51.5% [16.7-72.1%] against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5, and requirement for FiO2 >28% respectively. Three-dose BNT162b2 protection against hospitalisation with Omicron infection was 30.9% [5.9-49.3%], with sensitivity analyses ranging from 28.8-72.6%. Protection against LOS >3 days, WHO COVID Score >5 and requirement for FiO2 >28% was 56.1% [20.6-76.5%], 58.8% [31.2-75.8%], and 41.5% [-0.4-66.3%], respectively. In the UK, BNT162b2 was prioritised for high-risk individuals and those aged >75 years. In the latter group we found a higher estimate of VE against hospitalisation of 47.2% [16.8-66.6%]. Interpretation: BNT162b2 vaccination results in risk reductions for hospitalisation and multiple patient outcomes following Delta and Omicron COVID-19 infection, particularly in older adults. BNT162b2 remains effective against severe SARS-CoV-2 disease. Funding: AvonCAP is an investigator-led project funded under a collaborative agreement by Pfizer.

Study Pre-protocol for "BronchStart - The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Timing, Age and Severity of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Emergency Presentations; a Multi-Centre Prospective Observational Cohort Study".

Background: Bronchiolitis (most frequently caused by respiratory syncytial virus; RSV) is a common winter disease predominantly affecting children under one year of age. It is a common reason for presentations to an emergency department (ED) and frequently results in hospital admission, contributing to paediatric units approaching or exceeding capacity each winter. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the circulation of RSV was dramatically reduced in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Evidence from the Southern Hemisphere and other European countries suggests that as social distancing restrictions for SARS-CoV-2 are relaxed, RSV infection returns, causing delayed or even summer epidemics, with different age distributions. Study question: The ability to track, anticipate and respond to a surge in RSV cases is critical for planning acute care delivery. There is an urgent need to understand the onset of RSV spread at the earliest opportunity. This will influence service planning, to inform clinicians whether the population at risk is a wider age range than normal, and whether there are changes in disease severity. This information is also needed to inform decision on the timing of passive immunisation of children at higher risk of hospitalisation, intensive care admission or death with RSV infection, which is a public health priority. Methods and likely impact: This multi-centre prospective observational cohort study will use a well-established research network (Paediatric Emergency Research in the UK and Ireland, PERUKI) to report in real time cases of RSV infection in children aged under two years, through the collection of  essential, but non-identifying patient information. Forty-five centres will gather initial data on age, index of multiple deprivation quintile, clinical features on presentation, and co-morbidities. Each case will be followed up at seven days to identify treatment, viral diagnosis and outcome.  Information be released on a weekly basis and used to support clinical decision making.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 COVID-19 vaccination at preventing hospitalisations in people aged at least 80 years: a test-negative, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: On Dec 8, 2020, deployment of the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccination authorised for UK use (BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine) began, followed by an adenoviral vector vaccine ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 on Jan 4, 2021. Care home residents and staff, frontline health-care workers, and adults aged 80 years and older were vaccinated first. However, few data exist regarding the effectiveness of these vaccines in older people with many comorbidities. In this post-implementation evaluation of two COVID-19 vaccines, we aimed to determine the effectiveness of one dose in reducing COVID-19-related admissions to hospital in people of advanced age. METHODS: This prospective test-negative case-control study included adults aged at least 80 years who were admitted to hospital in two NHS trusts in Bristol, UK with signs and symptoms of respiratory disease. Patients who developed symptoms before receiving their vaccine or those who received their vaccine after admission to hospital were excluded, as were those with symptoms that started more than 10 days before hospital admission. We did logistic regression analysis, controlling for time (week), sex, index of multiple deprivations, and care residency status, and sensitivity analyses matched for time and sex using a conditional logistic model adjusting for index of multiple deprivations and care residency status. This study is registered with ISRCTN, number 39557. FINDINGS: Between Dec 18, 2020, and Feb 26, 2021, 466 adults were eligible (144 test-positive and 322 test-negative). 18 (13%) of 135 people with SARS-CoV-2 infection and 90 (34%) of 269 controls received one dose of BNT162b2. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 71·4% (95% CI 46·5-90·6). Nine (25%) of 36 people with COVID-19 infection and 53 (59%) of 90 controls received one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 80·4% (95% CI 36·4-94·5). When BNT162b2 effectiveness analysis was restricted to the period covered by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, the estimate was 79·3% (95% CI 47·0-92·5). INTERPRETATION: One dose of either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 resulted in substantial risk reductions of COVID-19-related hospitalisation in people aged at least 80 years. FUNDING: Pfizer.